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said last month that a UK exit without a deal on trading arrangements with the European Union would be "catastrophic," throwing its production into chaos and threatening its future in the country.

It makes wings for all its commercial aircraft in the United Kingdom, employing 15,000 people.

Planes may be grounded

Paul Everitt, CEO of aerospace and defense industry group ADS, warned Thursday that planes could lose their safety certifications when Brexit takes effect.

"Our worst case scenario is that aircraft will not fly," he said. "It is an extreme situation."

Despite the apocalyptic warnings, there is still a major gulf between what business wants and May's approach to Brexit.

Jaguar Land Rover said Thursday that it must have "tariff and customs-free access to trade and talent with no change to current EU regulations," an outcome that would break several red lines May has said she will not cross in negotiations with the European Union.

Yet it's a case that businesses continue to make.

"Our message to government is that until it can demonstrate exactly how a new model for customs and trade with the EU can replicate the benefits we currently enjoy, don't change it," Mike Hawes, the CEO of the The Society of Motor Manufacturers Traders, said last month.

If automakers don't get what they need, Bailey said they could shutter UK factories within a few years.

"The government has got to come up with a plan that business can work with, and they have to do it quickly," he said.

-- Michael Kaplan contributed reporting.

CNNMoney (London) First published July 5, 2018: 11:13 AM ET
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Gianluca Fiorelli
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Ancient Romans were used to say that "Fate helps the braves". If you're not "brave" and don't create the opportunities, even the smallest ones, for having Fate helping you, than your will have a future filled with unfortunate missed occasions.

Jonathan Hatton

Loose quote from Edison: 'I have not failed, I have found 10,000 ways that won't work'.

Like with everything you try in marketing, don't be too harsh on yourself. But make sure you learn from your experiences.

You can't win every time.

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I have not failed, I have found 10,000 ways that won't work

worth a bold font :)

Jacob Edward

We have a ton of indirect investments that pay off in a big way but are very hard to track exactly how much we spent and how much they are in fact returning. For these things we just feel that being out there brings a lot of the serendipity you are speaking of.

Rand Fishkin

And, don't forget that you'll make some investments that you can't trace, and probably think didn't work, but that have, in fact, brought great value. That's the true mental challenge of investing in serendipity.

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Great WBF Rand (and insightful comments Gianluca)!

In such a data-driven industry, it’s the intangibles that create the momentum that help us gain the best results. Think creativity, boldness and insight.

If we court our fear of failure or rejection of others by listening to that little voice inside that sometimes says “Don’t do it, it’s not safe!”, we unfortunately overlook those opportunities that offer new perspectives or new experiences that help us move forward.

The one thing we can’t measure with data, that’s personal to all of us? Our mindset and what we think or believe about ourselves.

So, if we learn to listen to our intuition, act with audacity and have a “What if?” or “Why not?” attitude, we’ll work smarter, be happier, become luckier and attract those serendipitous moments, because we’re open and ready.

Working on ourselves and our "internal blueprint", as hard as we work in our jobs, as owners or with clients means we'll be 95% of the way there.

Then we'll be able to trust our gut (even if we fail sometimes), remain authentic (key!) and do the ‘un-measureable’ things that help ourselves and others.

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Improving the Sensitivity of Online Controlled Experiments by Utilizing Pre-Experiment Data Alex Deng, Ya Xu, Ron Kohavi, Toby Walker

Online controlled experiments are at the heart of making data-driven decisions at a diverse set of companies, including Amazon, eBay, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Yahoo, and Zynga. Small differences in key metrics, on the order of fractions of a percent, may have very significant business implications. At Bing it is not uncommon to see experiments that impact annual revenue by millions of dollars, even tens of millions of dollars, either positively or negatively. With thousands of experiments being run annually, improving the sensitivity of experiments allows for more precise assessment of value, or equivalently running the experiments on smaller populations (supporting more experiments) or for shorter durations (improving the feedback cycle and agility). We propose an approach (CUPED) that utilizes data from the pre-experiment period to reduce metric variability and hence achieve better sensitivity. This technique is applicable to a wide variety of key business metrics, and it is practical and easy to implement. The results on Bing’s experimentation system are very successful: we can reduce variance by about 50%, effectively achieving the same statistical power with only half of the users, or half the duration

Trustworthy Online Controlled Experiments: Five Puzzling Outcomes Explained Ron Kohavi, Alex Deng, Brian Frasca, Roger Longbotham, Toby Walker, Ya Xu

Online controlled experiments are often utilized to make data-driven decisions at Amazon, Microsoft, eBay, Facebook, Google, Yahoo, Zynga, and at many other companies. While the theory of a controlled experiment is simple, and dates back to Sir Ronald A. Fisher’s experiments at the Rothamsted Agricultural Experimental Station in England in the 1920s, the deployment and mining of online controlled experiments at scale—thousands of experiments now—has taught us many lessons. These exemplify the proverb that the difference between theory and practice is greater in practice than in theory. We present our learnings as they happened: puzzling outcomes of controlled experiments that we analyzed deeply to understand and explain. Each of these took multiple-person weeks to months to properly analyze and get to the often surprising root cause. The root causes behind these puzzling results are not isolated incidents; these issues generalized to multiple experiments. The heightened awareness should help readers increase the trustworthiness of the results coming out of controlled experiments. At Microsoft’s Bing, it is not uncommon to see experiments that impact annual revenue by millions of dollars, thus getting trustworthy results is critical and investing in understanding anomalies has tremendous payoff: reversing a single incorrect decision based on the results of an experiment can fund a whole team of analysts. The topics we cover include: the OEC (Overall Evaluation Criterion), click tracking, effect trends, experiment length and power, and carryover effects.


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